TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORTATION
OECD International Conference, Vancouver Canada

Home||300Words||Program||Sponsors||People||Papers||E-Forum||Concl's||Register||Elec-Env

Session 1d - Looking Down the Road

Abstract of address by Achim Diekmann

Difficult Times Ahead for Public Transport

In the past, there has been a tendency to underestimate the pace of growth of motorisation. In many countries the number of vehicles in use has grown far more rapidly than expected. There is some evidence that with we now may be underestimating the qualitative changes road traffic is undergoing.

Though remaining essentially a tool on four wheels, destined to carry people and goods individually rather then collectively, the motor vehicle has developed an astounding capability to absorb new technologies adapting them to the needs of its users. This is likely to be even more so in the future.

Being reluctant for some time, the motor industry has embarked on a course of product innovation which will make private transportation even more attractive, adding to the competitive advantage it has over other modes of transportation being much more closely integrated into our everyday life than any of these (with the possible exception of the bicycle).

In spite of transport policy showing an undeniable bias towards public transport in most countries, providing infrastructure to public transport operators free of charge and paying sizable subsidies to cover their operational losses, public transport has been fighting a battle of retreat for many years. This process is likely to be exacerbated. Unless public transport operators succeed in individualizing their services, only a few niches will be left to them. One of them will probably be high-speed links between major centres of activities. But these are rather in competition with air traffic rather than with the road.

There are a number of reasons for viewing the prospects of public transport with some skepticism. One is, that at a time when many governments will be forced to dismantle extensive welfare provisions subsidies to public transport spent so lavishly during more prosperous periods are unlikely to survive. With road traffic becoming environmentally less cumbersome, we are quickly moving to a point where concern over the financial sustainability of public transport will replace public concern over road traffic's environmental sustainability.

At the same time, demand for commuting will lessen as new information and communication technologies progress. This will widely affect the pattern of land use to the benefit of overcrowded cities reducing their environmental burden but hardly to the benefit of public transport.

Priorities in our society are about to change. There will be growing recognition that the environmental and societal problems we are facing can only be solved in a climate of growth, not by self-imposed restriction. Road traffic by its very nature has an important role to play to set the stage for the gains in productivity required to achieve both environmental and social sustainability. This is why governments would be well-advised to check their priorities when assigning their scarce financial resources to the transport sector in the future.

Home||300Words||Program||Sponsors||People||Papers||E-Forum||Concl's||Register||Elec-Env