TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE
TRANSPORTATIONOECD International Conference, Vancouver Canada
TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE
TRANSPORTATION
The rapid increase in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases due to human activities, particularly the burning of fossil fuels, gives rise to projections of significant climate change in the coming decades. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Second Assessment Report (1995) indicates that the imprint of human actions on climate is evident in recent records, and that the next century will probably see a rate of warming greater than any in the last 10,000 years unless remedial action is taken. The most severe potential impacts will be unmanaged ecosystems(coral reefs, boreal forests), human health, effects of sea level rise and the potential for more severe natural disasters. Impacts are estimated to be proportionately much greater for developing regions than for presently industrialized countries. This seriously threatens sustainable development in many countries.
In 1990, the transportation sector contributed about 22% of global carbon dioxide (C02) emissions from fossil fuel use, and is the most rapidly increasing sector. While C02 is the most important of the greenhouse gases, other emissions from the transportation sector also contribute. Unless there is major policy intervention, transportation energy use could increase 40 to 100% by 2025 and as much as 400% by 2100. At present, the industrialized countries dominate global emissions, and transportation accounts for as much as 1/3 of their emissions. By 2025, presently developing countries may become equal or greater contributors.
Achieving the initial objectives for 36 industrialized countries in the Framework Convention on Climate Change, i.e. stabilization of national emissions at 1990 levels by 2000, may require early intervention in the transport sector for a number of countries. However, the longer term objective of the Convention the stabilization of atmospheric concentrations at levels that will not result in "dangerous anthropogenic interference" in the climate system will require major changes in transportation systems in the decades to come.
The IPCC Assessment suggests that technical options exist, or are under development, which, if implemented, could achieve the major reductions needed in transportation sector greenhouse gas emissions. These changes could be driven by movement towards full cost accounting of transportation externalities, other economic instruments, improved transportation planning, and/or by regulatory measures.